“What Would a Hard Landing in China Mean for the World? Barry Naughton at U.C. San Diego, Jim McGregor of APCO Worldwide and Arthur Kroeber of GaveKal in Beijing take apart NYTimes columnist Paul Krugman’s recent assessment of what’s next for the world’s No 2 economy”. See here:
http://www.chinafile.com/what-would-hard-landing-china-mean-world
All comments carry some good insights. As for me, the worry goes a bit further. The Chinese economy and society has seen an accelerating set of problems, culminating in serious concerns on where China is heading. The 18th Party Congress showed the strains. As some Chinese said at the time, if the new leadership cannot handle the problems there might not be a 19th Party Congress. Maybe exaggerated, but this time the new leaders cannot swipe the issues under the carpet. Chinese society is weary of the host of problems, I don’t need to list them. With a worsening economy, public pressure will only become stronger. The new leaders are trying to tackle the core problems one by one (as I listed in my book). But they face deeply vested interests and their success is far from guaranteed. An easy way out is to blame the foreigners as we see too often (now the pharma companies). As a businessman commented yesterday to me (he has 25 years of China): the Chinese do not want foreigners to succeed here, except for some big companies like VW, GM etc. We see that everyday, just talk with a foreign restaurant or bar owner. Authorities check anything they can invent, flies, smoking, hygiene, you name it. You go to a locally owned place and you see another world where everything goes (welcome to smoke, don’t ask where the mear comes from, don’t eeven ask if they have a restaurant license, …). China has also the lowest possible amount of foreigners (in percentage of the total population). More and more of my friends are leaving this summer – visa problems. With all the nice talking by the authorities one can wonder, are we really welcome? As an active member in the European Chamber we see so many market access issues, while Chinese complain about “market access in the EU”. What a joke. After over 30 years here, I have some doubts right now.

On 18 July 2013 I attented the reception at the EU Delegation on the occasion of the visit of Vice-President Tajani and Commissioner Potocnik. Their joint mission to China (Beijing) was to focus on the theme of “Green Growth”. They were accompanied by a delegation of European companies. The mission has three main objectives:
1) to promote sustainable and inclusive growth and business opportunities on both sides;
2) to help European companies and in particular SMEs to operate in China;
3) to promote EU-China business contacts and opportunities.
The program was co-organised by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the European Union, the EUCCC, the EU-SME Centre, the IPR/SME Helpdesk and Enterprise Europe Network, among others.

Pictured are Mr. Antonio Tajani (European Commission’s Vice-President responsible for Industry and Entrepreneurship), Mr. Janez Potočnik (European Commissioner responsible for Environment), EU Ambassador Markus Ederer, and Mr. Davide Cucino (President of the European Chamber- EUCCC).

On 1 July 2013 I attended the reception at the EU Delegation to see my friend, the Ambassador of Croatia Prof. Dr. Ante Simonic (he has fond memories of Belgium!). Croatia is now the latest country to be part of the EU. While some put doubts on this “rushed membership” and unresolved issues in the country, I believe it is the right move. Pictured are also: EU Ambassador Markus Ederer and Lithuanian Ambassador Lina Antanaviciene as well as Mr. Song Tao, vice minister of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Reception offered nice food and real wine from Croatia!

In June 2013 our company organized a first exploration trip to Belarus, together with partners and Chinese companies. The goal was to review possible projects for the Chinese companies, mostly in the energy sector.

I did not join but our General Manager Ms. Sun Bin took part. She was impressed with the architecture of the city, the clean streets, the blue sky and the wide range of food for the buffet. They all stayed at the brand-new President Hotel, right next to the government buildings.
Some pictures that give you an idea…

Today 1 July 2013 the new law came into effect. The Beijing Public security Bureau invited me this morning for the “launch ceremony”. As it turned out, I was again “poster boy” on one of their posters. Was good to meet again some of the people we know there.

For some initial comments see:
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1272959/under-chinas-new-immigration-law-harsher-fines-illegal-foreigners
Some highlights:
– harsher punishments for foreigners who illegally enter, live or work in China. For the first time, the law would detain foreigners between five and 15 days if they were caught residing or working illegally in mainland China.
– Illegal migrants would now also be fined 5,000 yuan to 20,000 yuan and face deportation. Their employers would be fined up to 100,000 yuan per individual illegal employee.
– The new law also aims to reform the green card system, which since 2004 allows foreigners to permanently reside in mainland China. By the end of 2011, only 4,752 people have been granted green cards, called the “hardest to get in the world” by the Southern Metropolis Daily last year. I am a Green Card holder myself.
– About 594,000 foreigners live in China, according to the 2010 national census; most come from South Korea, the US and Japan.
– The new law could also ease visa hassles for foreign same-sex couples in China, according to one London-based law firm.
Not mentioned much: to get a work permit one could now need an official and certified criminal record. How that will work is a big question.