From Beijing, an unfiltered view on business and economy.
More serious stuff on business in China
On 24 August, delegates of the BDRC came over to my office to express thanks for my work as Senior Economic Adviser for the City. With the Olympics behind us, my task is finished – as for now. I received a “Honor Certificate” (one more to hang on the wall) plus a nice present.
China Daily, a must read paper is often transparent (the way it turns around the news) but sometimes puzzling.
Over the years it has changed content and of course, this wouldn’t be China, it does not explain why. Here some of the “disappearing acts”
– Years ago we have weekly survey tables on the pollution figures in the major cities. When the figures became worse, they “adjusted” the definitions of good, poor, bad etc. so the charts would look not as somber. I remember seeing cities often with levels of API 400 to 500. I guess having the Olympics coming that was too negative news so the charts completely vanished.
– Before we had TV programs listed. They normally came too late to be of use unless you had express delivery at 5am to read the paper. The details were also sketchy. Poof, gone one day. Of course you could say, the Internet tells you all. Wrong again. Try figuring out the programs online of CCTV9: the webmasters are permanently on holiday (or in government meetings).
– Stock market charts: we never had anything interesting, only the “charts of the day” of the markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen etc. Who wants to know? Meaningless. You’ll never see charts covering 1 week / 1 month / 3 months / 1 year etc. like in SCMP. Probably because it looks too scary.
– Most puzzling – I’m still trying to find the tables – the daily Exchange Rates have gone. Is the government up to something? The website still has a slimmed down currency converter but the former tables were very handy, giving different rates like for US$ and Euro (middle rates, buy / sell etc.). Weird. Any good explanation? I still have some I cut out. Will be a good souvenir to be framed.
By Adriana Villa, on 24 July 2009 – BizChinaUpdate
China is facing “grim” fiscal conditions, according to comments attributed to Premier Wen Jiabao. The situation requires “the unswerving implementation of proactive fiscal policy and relatively easy monetary policy to shore up the economic recovery,” state media reports.
The Chinese economy is “at a critical moment on the road to recovery,” Wen said, and the fiscal conditions remain “grim.” The Premier urged provincial finance authorities to “cut back unnecessary expenditure,” and “put the money into the real economy to promote solid recovery.”
The Premier’s comments come days after a controversial report produced by a Washington-based Asian economic policy unit questioning China’s first-half GDP growth figure. The Heritage Foundation report, entitled China Refuses to Adjust Its Economy, raised questions about how China could “survey the economic progress of 1.3 billion people” in 15 days, concluding the economic results were “manufactured to suit the Communist Party.”
So far for the news flash. People should pay more attention when top leaders come with such announcements. They signal some serious concerns – and I agree. See earlier entries on this blog. We are NOT out of the woods yet. As for the GDP figures, I believe them as much as the top financial analysts and economist of the West. Meaning: wild and meaningless – most have no clue.
China is becoming one of those countries where the word “transparency” is either blacklisted or used sarcastically.
It is getting on the nerves of many China watchers who actually care for the country. People are fed up with the many websites blocked since weeks. Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, personal blogs and websites.
Political repression is growing. Lawyers who try to defend minority interests have a hard time (or worse).
The handling of the Xinjiang case – in itself very sad – shows the stubborn attitude of a sclerotic bunch who does not get it. In Europe we were faced (and still are) with similar clashes. Repression and ignoring the reality has never worked.
Where most of the world reacted very mildly at first, attitudes could turn against China.
The handling of the Rio Tinto case is another blow to the image of China. Do those goons NEVER learn not to shoot in their foot? “State secrets” is the typical cover for a dictatorial regime to do whatever they feel like. If they would simply follow the law, do a corruption investigation, nobody could say anything. That happens in the EU and USA too. People are in prison for corrupt practices. But there is transparency and the use of law. The excuses of the goons is again sad and ridiculous. Good for the naïve foreigners who still blindly fall for Chinese seduction tactics. The attitude is – do something I don’t like and I’ll get you anyway. Rule of Law – forget it.
Foreigners are excluded from mega-projects. All on ridiculous grounds just to protect their “Chinese industry”. Foreigners have set up factories in China, produce goods with over 70% local content, pay taxes, do charity, employ local workers. And get kicked out of local markets.
All fueled by neo-nationalism from the young generation (typically “educated” balinghou and jiulinghou – the uneducated have better attitude) that is too often empty-headed, useless, selfish. The “me-me” generation. Spoiled brats, except for a few.
With the 60 years whatever coming on 1 October, clampdown on visas and nightlife continues (can’t give details, sorry). Welcome to China? Forget it. Expo 2010? You must be joking, right?
Not to wonder some of us get real pissed off. Business confidence?
It’s like the pollution.
2pm on 17 July, 61st floor Park Hyatt
“The problem now is not how to withdraw the stimulus packages, it is how to restore growth. To save its economy, the United States has to save more. But if the United States saves more, someone else has got to save less if we are to maintain around a 5 percent growth rate for the global economy. This is an equation that needs to be resolved in the coming 2-3 years. It is going to be an issue of realigning exchange rates globally.”
Youssef Boutros-Ghali, chairman of the International Monetary and Financial Committee (IMFC) of the IMF – interview with China Daily, July 2009
What more can one say! I remain not too optimistic. Too much unemployment in USA and EU. Consumers won’t spend if they have little or no income, need to save and avoid home foreclosure.
In Beijing the oversupply in the office market only can get worse. Just walk around in CBD. Residential sector is doing reasonably well as many Chinese still need to increase and improve their living space. But that’s the low-end market. Some blame rampant government corruption and fat profits from developers for high real estate prices. At least that explains why Lamborghinis are selling well in Beijing. Even in our modest Julong you can see some. This week I saw a bunch of them being unloaded. The money has to come from somewhere.