China: 30 years of opening up

Chinese and foreign media have extensively reported on the anniversary of 30 years of opening up – started in 1978.
Some of my personal stories will be part of my book.
I visited the exhibition on the topic, held in China World from 19 to 30 December:
“A 30-Year History: Exhibition on China’s Opening up”
It did not receive much coverage in the English press, a pity because the two exhibition floors were fully packed with overviews op the economic history – province by province, country by country plus some extras. I was the only foreigner; many Chinese groups were visiting with help of free guides available at the reception.


I wanted to see how the Ministry of Commerce had used some of my contributions. Every country had exactly the same exhibit space so I was happy to find back several of my pieces, like the post cards announcing my office move within the Beijing Hotel and later to the Kunlun Hotel – all in the early eighties, as well as the large glass model of the “The Athletes Alley” by Olivier Strebelle. See the pics. Also shown are the three stands of the Benelux: Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg.
See also the large auditorium where I saw the interview on screen with Bart Pennewaert, First Secretary of the Belgian Embassy. There were also large touch screens to consult the data.
I opened the first Belgian Representative Office in Beijing with a Belgian Representative, in early 1981. See me with my secretary Chen Jilun at the door of room 5109 (“West Wing” of Beijing Hotel) in 1981. That time there were no office buildings, no apartments for business people – nothing. So that room was for a long time the office but also my bedroom, living room, “dining” room.
What changes since then…

Lobbying in China: “illegal”?

On Friday 9 January I addressed once again an EMBA delegation from the Copenhagen Business School. The topic of my seminar – not the first one of that type – was about the Chinese business environment and “lobbying” in China.
One of my friends tried to convince me that “lobbying is illegal in China”. We can say that our consulting firm is very much focused on what I call “strategic consulting and lobbying”. Obviously most people stay away from that topic and certainly that sticker – as in many countries it has gained a bad reputation and is being seen as unfair and a cover of corruption. I stick to that word being already known to “provoke” a little.

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The seminar tries exactly to address this misunderstanding, of course noting that the definition like on Wikipedia (excellent material there!) does not literally apply to what we do – though one could argue that when e.g. the European Chamber approaches the Chinese government to change or influence laws and regulations it is exactly that. Some extracts from Wikipedia:
Lobbying is the practice of influencing decisions made by government. It includes all attempts to influence legislators and officials, whether by other legislators, constituents or organized groups. A lobbyist is a person who tries to influence legislation on behalf of a special interest or a member of a lobby. Governments often define and regulate organized group lobbying.
I explain what we understand with “lobbying” through two projects I completed successfully:
– The Athletes Alley by Olivier Strebelle (Belgium) in Beijing
– Restarting metro projects in China: obtaining the contract for Shanghai Metro Line 3 (when I was heading the Shanghai Alstom office).
In short, “lobbying” is the art of dealing with the complex Chinese bureaucracy and getting your message across. Most of the time it also means the foreign side needs to understand Chinese concerns and take them into consideration.
And it does not imply giving out envelopes with cash or something. That does not last long anyway.
Wikipedia also notes: “There are currently around 15,000 lobbyists in Brussels (consultants, lawyers, associations, corporations, NGOs etc.) seeking to influence the EU’s legislative process. Some 2,600 special interest groups have a permanent office in Brussels.”
Interesting…

James Kynge: all in reverse gear now

See earlier entry: https://blog.strategy4china.com/?p=108 to read about James’ book “China Shakes The World”.
The book starts describing (Page 6) how everywhere around the world people would steal whatever (manholes!) to sell it as scrap iron. Destination: China.
Then later some lady made big money buying scrap paper to ship to China.
China, hungry for anything to feed its industry. The factory of the world.
Well, times change.
In the USA ports are getting clogged – mountains of scrap paper, scrap iron and similar are piling up as China stopped importing. In China, iron ore is piling up at the ports as the iron & Steel Industry is scaling down.
If you still doubt the world economy is in trouble…
Maybe James can write another book: “The World Shakes China”.

China reserves: going (a bit) down

As I predicted in my speech in CBD (17 October), hot money is likely to leave China. This is now confirmed.
Cai Qiusheng, an official with the capital account management department of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, says that China’s foreign exchange reserves had fallen from their peak of over US$1.9 trillion but did not give details on when or by how much they had fallen. Foreign exchange reserves have already fallen from the first time since December 2003. Calculated on a month-on-month basis, their highest level was over US $1.9 trillion, but they are now definitely lower than that figure.” According to the data from China’s central bank, China’s foreign trade surplus was US$35.24b in Oct., and US$40.09b in Nov., respectively. Meanwhile, the actual FDI was US$6.72b in October, and US$5.32b in November, respectively. That means, based on rough calculations, a capital of more than US$80b flew out of mainland China in Oct. and Nov. [source: Hexun]
Liu Mingkang, chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission said that China may start seeing capital outflows after years of being on the receiving end of huge inflows. He says that China’s economic recovery will be a U-shape rather than a V-shape. He adds that the possibility of inflation becoming deflation is increasing in China. [source: Eastday]


And this how some companies might change their logo in 2009. It’s all in the recession!
(I selected the best from a long series I got…)

New Australia Tourist Map & Belgium

See here the latest map for you to enjoy tourist attractions in Good Down Under!
aussiemap
The map is circulating here among joke-happy Beijing residents.
For our Aussie friends to feel better: Belgium is even more “interesting”. On Friday I had a private lunch here with our Belgian Ambassador and his wife (a very nice couple, BTW!). He was talking about the Belgian Government in a kind of “all swell” matter. By Saturday morning the government had disappeared in thin air. I now suggest Belgium does not mention anymore any of those headlines. Except to say, we DO have a government (and for longer than 6 months). Now, that would be news! Well, at least there is great news: for once it fell down not because of those silly Flemish/Walloon disputes.
On a more serious note, I was quite surprized to learn that Belgium’s GDP is around US$ 420 billion, at the same level as Switzerland and Sweden. I confess, not that bad for a country most of the time governmentless. Maybe that’s the reason?