Finally, Americans voters have decided.
The campaign was marked by smear tactics but the for the slimiest attacks the Republicans by far won the competition, driven by desperation. Baseless accusations and lies of the worst kind but voters were not fooled this time.
What a relief. Sarah Six-pack can go back moose hunting. Could you imagine her as president of the most important country in the world? Suddenly I started liking Hillary more.
Senator McCain disappointed with his campaign but at least closed the race with grace and dignity, commanding again the respect he deserves all together, despite his mistakes.
Voters finally made an intelligent choice, one was starting to doubt they ever could. Eight years of Bush was really enough, now the great majority of Americans agree it was the one of the worst presidencies ever. Bush failed to buy the book “Presidencies for Dummies” and instead surrounded himself with some sinister aides, the worst by far being Dick Cheney. Scary guy, he could go into acting, I suggest a role in a Nazi movie. Anyway soon most people will try to forget them all.
The voting was marked by malfunctioning machines, long waiting lines. I call it the “Queuing Country”. Maybe that explains why Olympic ticket sales in Beijing were so chaotic as it was done with the “help” of a U.S. company?! Silicon Valley needs to do something about that.

cartoons from the IHT dated 20 and 25 September 2008
Now it’s up to Barack Obama. He has the enormous challenge to clean up the destruction left by Bush Inc. and the limitless greed of Wall Street. Our Chinese bureaucrats are amateurs compared to the crooks who enriched themselves. In China we call that corruption or crime. Thanks in part to Greenspan, the fake guru who now seems “surprised” by the excesses. There is a difference between free markets and criminal greed. In my eyes all those so-called financial and economic “experts” are as clueless as our Alaska Hockey Mom. At least she has an excuse.
The “experts” were just excellent in “robbing the bank” and Main Street, bombarding us with financial geek talk. At least people like Warren Buffet saw through their schemes. To say they wanted to teach Chinese how to run financial markets. Now they better learn from China instead.
Obama looks like a welcome change and an intelligent guy. But it will be tough. What most of us look forward to is that the USA will again assume the role as the respected leader of the free world.
Let’s just hope he will abandon his baseless rhetoric against “China’s currency manipulation”. Sometimes I’d wish China would give in and revalue its currency by 30%. Only then USA and Western Europe would realize their error. It would be tough for China but it could come out as the new and real economic power. No more Chinese financial to the developed countries (sounds real weird but…). No more cheap microwave ovens. Instead, airplanes, cars, high-tech electronics and more.
As they say, careful what you wish for.

I met the commercial counsellors of all 27 EU countries to discuss about doing business in China, plus some other top business people in private meetings.
The overall feeling is of concern for the near future. Both the EU and the USA are raising their voices and getting impatient.
Local Chinese government officials I recently met do seem clueless and feel all is well. Agreed, they cannot read the real story in their local newspaper.
On the other hand some figures and comments explain a lot.
The EU now is a total of 27 countries with a population of close to 480 million and a combined GNP exceeding 10 trillion euros.
According to Mofcom:

EU is now China’s largest trading partner according: in 2006 total trade stood at US$ 272.29 billion. Trade surplus for China was US$ 91.7 billion and in the first ten months of 2007 it climbed to US$ 102.8 billion. In 2006, the value of sales by EU companies with investment in China was US$ 206.6 billion “helping offset the disparity in the trade figures”.

But here is another version, of the EU Delegation in Beijing, ambassador Serge Abou:

“The EU trade deficit with China could reach 150 to 160 billion euro in 2007. The EU deficit growth of 30 to 35 billion euro per year is unsustainable.”

The visit of EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson in late 2007 brought more EU comments:

The EU deficit is increasing at a pace of 15 million euro per hour.
Beijing is now the largest source of manufactured imports for Europe.
EU exports to China are less than to Switzerland.
EU companies lose 20 billion euro per year due to China’s non-tariff barriers and regulatory discrimination.

For the USA, much the same. During the China – USA talks in December 2007 – US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Jr. and US Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez:

“Talks left the USA unfulfilled. Lingering concerns that China is increasingly using arcane regulations to keep out American products and wants to promote its own domestic economic “champions”. “In China there is an increasingly powerful domestic industry that is a strong lobby.” (IHT)”

Vice-Premier Wu Yi: “Some unharmonious notes” in the Sino-US trade ties this year: “It is marked by a sharp rise in the number of congressional legislation against China, evident politicization of economic and trade issues, strengthened control on exports to China and the purposeful exaggeration of China’s food and product safety.”
Then look at China Foreign Trade so far:

In the first eleven months of 2007: nearly US$ 2 trillion up 23.6% YoY.
Exports: US$ 1.1 trillion, up 26.1% – imports: US$ 865.5 billion, up 20.5% (no comments needed)
Trade surplus: US$ 238.1 billion up 52.2%

Now, that does not look so sustainable. I keep hearing from seasoned business people business is tough, less market access, rigged bidding, large-scale industrial IPR infringements. Yeah, yeah, read the wonderful success stories. Just talk frankly with people on the ground.
What the USA and EU need is not renminbi revaluation. They need reasonable market access, the consensus during a stiff drinking session in Centro, when the truth comes out. Not the one-way flow of goods and services. And the EU does want to export high-tech to China, businesses complain they can’t or don’t get paid (fairly).

Every year I join the conference to feel the pulse of the finance, investment and banking world in China. Usually many people turn up, like 1,000, as well as throngs of journalists. There are always some of the biggest shots in the industry to give a speech.
This year it took place in the Westin Hotel (Finance Street) under the title “Financing and Investing for Sustainable growth”.
Key speeches and presentations are mostly bland and say little or nothing that is worth mentioning. The Conference is mostly for me to hear what is NOT being said.
Some of my friends bankers get upset by the “empty talk, the B***S###”. Like when the Chinese bank officials talk about the need for innovation, the lack of expertise, etc. “Well, we foreign banks can do a lot but they just don’t let us”. Grumble grumble.
This year there was one remarkable message from nearly all Chinese key speakers: there is a serious risk for financial markets to drop considerably. “Markets do not always go up so we need to be prepared”. Not exactly an optimistic message. The subprime loan crisis is one of the factors mentioned. Not to talk about the totally crazy stock market in China. No more need to go to Macao, more and better here.
Some of the key speakers:
+ Zhou Xiaochuan, governor, PBOC
+ Lou Jiwei, chairman of the board, China Investment Corporation
+ NDRC vice chairman Zhang Xiaoqiang. In my opinion the best speaker:

– Switch from quantity to quality in foreign investment; new catalogue for investment; reduce export oriented and polluting industries for FDI; more focus on inland regions
– Chinese investments abroad going more global but still in its infancy; companies should be most involved, government to facilitate and lead the way; improve policies of forex and type of ownership abroad;. participation of large firms & SME.

+ Jiang Jianqing, chairman ICBC
+ Mike Moore, former PM of New Zealand (not exactly the highlight of the day)
+ Tianjin representative: Tianjin is an area of 11,000 km2 with over 11 million people. New Binhai Region covers 650 km2. New project of 10 million ton oil refining project.
See here the picture gallery with some pics of the key speakers – click on this link:
http://homepage.mac.com/bjprc/PhotoAlbum13.html

Our friend from Wenzhou, Hu Shijun is also Board Chairman of Maigou (Tianjin) Group Company, building a very large shopping mall to host suppliers of electrical, electronic and mechanical equipment.
Situated in the renovated central area of Tianjin the building is now taking shape, the last time I was there I attended the ground-breaking ceremony and gave a speech.
On 7 December I attended a signing ceremony for several of the new partners in the project.

All part of the daily and colorful life in China… Chinese event organizers often try to have some foreign faces in the VIP line. Looks good. Having gray hair and many titles is even better, so I perfectly fit the bill.