Tragedy in Mumbai

Sad news on this Thanksgiving day with the horrible attacks in Mumbai. Those terrorists are monsters, unfortunately for the moderate Muslims, most of those monsters do in in the name of their “faith”. For me, all vermin that should be exterminated without a second thought, now that would be a nice cleanup. Reading every day about them blowing up innocents, including children, maiming and throwing acid on girls who want to go to school, treating women and girls as non-people, etc. etc. A never-ending list of atrocities.
Being in China and reading this, again makes us think how well the Olympics went without any crazy people trying to blow spectators in a stadium or foreigners in a nightclub. Yes, security was sometimes a nuisance but just look what could have happened. Thumbs up for the security people. Sometimes it really feels well to be here without all kinds of weirdos with guns and more.
Our thoughts are with India and all the victims who have nothing to do with the absurd and crazy ideas of those extremists. They can keep their faith. In hell.

Recession: import, export and consumption

As said earlier, Japan and other Asian countries will suffer. See the chart (IHT 21 Nov 08) about faltering Japanese exports. Again, I refer to what happened in 2001-2002, in other words – way more to go down as this recession is much worse than that one.

For China, exports have been too important. It is said exports counted at one point for 50% of GDP and would be now at 40%. Not sure that is correct, looks a bit too high for me. But that half of the Foreign Exchange reserves are from the trade surplus makes sense. Switching from an export oriented economy to a consumption-driven society won’t be easy. According to Standard Chartered, 35% of demand in 2007 was generated by the government, not households. But if one considers personal income is growing at 15% per year and China tries to improve the social security network – convincing consumers to save less – there is room for increased consumption. If GDP growth does not fall well below 8%. In the meantime, who cares if it is the government spending?

Taxi! Taxi!

I still refuse to drive and rather use taxis, a cheap and mostly convenient way to get around if you know the city (better than the driver). Most of the drivers are OK and love to chat.
In several Chinese cities taxis have started angry strikes. The government had to intervene in view of the sometimes violent incidents. The situation is definitely wrong. Taxi drivers have been suffering from exploitation (rather extortion) by monopolistic taxi companies, higher prices for gasoline, CNG, LPG, etc. (if they can find it). Black taxis compete, often with open protection from “security” people (real police or uniformed thugs). The poor drivers are a constant target for traffic fines. Worker rights? Unions? You mean, in China? If they complain they can’t make a living, they get beaten up or worse. People complain about the bad attitude of (some) drivers, dirty cars. I think under the circumstances they are doing great.
The solution: get rid of those monopolies, open up the market for independent taxis, lower the fees they pay to the companies, eliminate the corruption and start defending worker’s rights (a novelty around here). I would even agree with slightly higher fees. Where can you have a good ride for 2 USD?
At least the government (and China Daily) admits something is amiss but it will be a long and tough road.

Detroit: help or not?

Tough question. If the Big 3 (well, not so big anymore) fail, the ripple effect of potential job losses would be staggering. They directly employ 250,000, then some 3 million are either in the supply chain or the distribution network. Scary of course, but it doesn’t mean all would be without a job forever. I agree dumping money in that black hole is a waste, something in the U.S. car industry is rotten after years of mismanagement, shoddy products, bad strategies for R&D and new models. Again, the “free market”, where GM Chief Wagoner gets rewarded US$ 14.4 million in 2007 for taking all the wrong decisions. Hello? The same inept management style like in the financial sector. Bailout for those? Kidding, right? Best is to let them go into bankruptcy, restructure, eliminate the sick companies. And ask Rick Wagoner to step down, and to return all his income of the past years (they call that “claw-backs”), and maybe let Steve Jobs take over to streamline the companies. So they make better cars than those gas guzzlers that shout for more oil drilling in the wrong places. iCar anybody? Made in China? OK, maybe not yet…
General Motors just announced that it is ending its sponsorship deal with the world’s most recognisable athlete, Tiger Woods. Maybe Tiger can explore a deal with a Chinese car company. He’ll get (fake) golf clubs extra, free of charge.